Last month, I took a look at Lending Club’s default rate. With the help of a couple comments from Peter and Dan, I found myself with an “average” idea of what completely indiscriminate investing can get you.
Here, I’m going to apply the same concept to the newest 10Q report. I will be adding collection fees to the data. I did not do this for last quarter’s report, so they cannot be compared. Instead, I’ll put the updated numbers side by side the current numbers.
Peter Renton also delved into the 10Q report on his site, check it out here. He looks at the companies financials. It’s an important read.
Again, past results are no indication of future returns. And the sample size is small.
To summarize:
In September 2011, with a hypothetical hundred dollar bill, $87.46 would net you 13.66% interest. $5.37 would pay .30 cents on the dollar and, $7.17 would pay .015 cents on the dollar. You would walk away with $101.13
In December 2011, a hypothetical hundred would get you $87.18 at 13.82% interest. $5.51 would earn you .30 cents on the dollar and $7.29 would get you .014 cents on the dollar. You would walk away with $101.01
My insistence on using averages, combined with the small sample size makes the difference in these two numbers negligible. What we will hope to see in coming quarters is a slow trend upward.
All the information below is taken from Lending Club’s 10Q report, unless I marked it with an asterisk. If the formatting doesn’t work, you can find more information here. If you have any questions, or more suggestions for improvement, let me know.
September 2011 December 2011
Completed Loans 6730 8317
# Paid in Full (%) 4537 (67.41%) 5624 (67.62%)
Average Rate 14.26% 14.42%
Less Lender Fee* 13.66% 13.82%
Average Origination $10,528 $10,959
# to Collections (%) 1439 (21.38%) 1705 (20.50%)
Total Originated** $13,427,263 $15,298,483
$ to Collections $3,368,839 $4,114,710
% “Bad Debt” 25.10% 26.90%
$ Collected $1,476,279 $1,834,165
Collection Fees* $472,409 $586,932
Per Dollar Recoup $0.298 $0.303
# Charged Off 754 (11.20%) 988 (11.87%)
Total Originated** $7,938,112 $10,827,492
$ Charged Off $5,098,623 $6,657,041
% Bad Debt 64.22% 61.48%
$ Collected $116,339 $134,548
Collection Fees* $37,228 $43,055
Per Dollar Recoup $0.015 $0.014
* I looked at “fees” in a previous post. I chose 32% as my average fee number because the range is between 30-35%, and there are more ways to get a 30% collection fee than a 35% one. There was no science involved.
** On late notes, Lending Club’s 10Q reports there is no divison between the origination amount for notes in collection and notes defaulted. To get my numbers, I multiplied the average loan amount by the number of loans that were charged off. I subtracted that number from the “total origination amount” (p.42 on the 10Q) to get the origination amount for loans in collection that have not been charged off.
